Rwanda and other East African countries face a high likelihood of above-normal rainfall in the final months of 2026, raising the risk of flooding and other weather-related disasters.
The forecast was presented Monday during a regional climate outlook forum in Kigali, where meteorological experts are assessing weather patterns to guide planning across East Africa.
Dr. Nicholas Savage, an expert with the United Kingdom’s Met Office, said there is up to a 90% chance of above-normal rainfall in Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Tanzania and parts of Uganda in October, November and December.
Some areas could receive between 300 and 400 millimeters of rain or more, while rainfall could continue for 10 to 15 consecutive days, Savage said.
The outlook comes as 2026 is also expected to rank among the hottest years on record. Savage said the year could finish among the four hottest ever recorded and has a strong chance of ranking among the top two.
He linked the outlook to rising global temperatures and El Niño, a climate pattern associated with warmer-than-normal Pacific Ocean waters.
Gahigi Aimable, director general of the Rwanda Meteorology Agency, said El Niño generally brings increased rainfall to the region, although its effects vary in different parts of the world.
Fidele Bingwa, permanent secretary in the Ministry of Environment, said Rwanda would use the forecast to strengthen early preparedness, particularly in areas vulnerable to heavy rainfall.
“We must move beyond simply forecasting the weather and prepare for the impacts it may bring,” Bingwa said.
He called for stronger regional cooperation in sharing climate information and improving early warning systems to protect lives, agriculture and infrastructure.
The two-day forum is held as part of regional efforts to provide seasonal climate information that countries can use in planning and disaster preparedness.
